Forecasting VMT response to roadway network changes in rural areas

Summary

How much roadway usage should be expected following freeway expansion in rural areas? This question has immediate application in a number of planning areas in the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT), and has not been widely studied in previous research, which has tended to focus on urban area vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In the current absence of a statewide travel demand model, MnDOT has little quantitative expectation of how roadway projects, including lane additions and interchange conversions, will change expected daily use of those and other roads, if at all. To address the gap, researchers for this rapid empirical study under the Applied Research in Transportation (ART) program are 1) developing two distinct methods for expectations of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) on rural Minnesota roadways, 2) using each method to forecast VMT following changes to the roadway network, 3) comparing and reconciling the output of the methods on real or hypothetical roadway projects, and 4) recommending an approach for estimating VMT in rural areas of Minnesota. This method in particular addresses a known gap in methods for applying the Greenhouse Gas Impact Assessment procedure required of MnDOT and local road authorities.