Study on Post-COVID Pandemic Public Transportation

Summary

As directed by the Minnesota Legislature in HF2887 (enacted May 2023), this study synthesizes the observed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on public transportation in the metropolitan area, and forecasts expected impacts after the pandemic is substantially curtailed. A primer on regional transit ridership is followed by chapters on how COVID-19 changed transit ridership; the dynamics of regional active transportation and transit demand; the operational revenues and expenditures of Met Council fixed route transit budgets; and scenario exploration of future trends in ridership and financial flows. A key contribution of this study is documenting the relationship between transit ridership and transit accessibility (access to opportunity). As the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates, external forces on travel behavior can alter demand, but regional transit agencies have much more influence on transit supply. In areas where access to opportunities via transit is higher, ridership in those neighborhoods increases, even in the COVID era. To the extent that ridership is a primary goal of regional transit agencies, bolstering the network that provides high accessibility to destinations will lead to success.