Estimating Likely Mode Shift and Vehicle-Miles-Traveled Reduction Potential Using Travel Behavior Inventory Data and AI Algorithms

Summary

The 2023 legislature established the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Impact Mitigation Working Group to align project decision-making with the state's GHG emissions reduction targets and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) reduction targets established in the Statewide Multimodal Transportation Plan (SMTP). To achieve the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT)'s goal of reducing VMT by 20% per capita by 2050, new transportation services and infrastructure (e.g., transit services or bicycle facilities) as well as travel demand management (TDM) policies and programs (e.g., transit passes, e-bike rebates, teleworking incentives) are needed. Additionally, Minnesotans will need to change their travel behavior toward these goals. Understanding the potential effectiveness of these interventions in achieving behavior change is key to ensuring the effective use of taxpayers' dollars. It will help prioritize investments that address the travelers who are most likely to change their behavior, while understanding what it might take to increase this likelihood for other travelers as well. This study uses artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to estimate the "likely" mode shift and VMT reduction by incorporating users' sociodemographic attributes and travel behavior into their feasible path options. Using Metropolitan Council's Travel Behavior Inventory (TBI) data, AI algorithms will be developed to label surveyed individuals by their mode-switching likelihood. This will identify which population groups are more likely to switch to transit or bicycle modes if given the options or incentives. Subsequently, generative AI algorithms will be developed to expand the survey samples and to project VMT changes resulting from transportation projects or programs. Estimating potential VMT reductions will aid the member agencies in MnDOT's GHG Emissions Impact Mitigation Working Group through establishing assessment procedures and determining mitigation/offset criteria and evaluation.