When the City of Edina wanted to know whether its 2030 population density targets were sufficient to meet its transportation and climate goals, it turned to a group of students with the University of Minnesota’s Resilient Communities Project (RCP).
RCP is a program at the U’s Center for Urban and Regional Affairs connecting faculty and students with local government agencies in Minnesota to address strategic projects that advance local resilience, equity, and sustainability.
Edina’s Climate Action Plan (CAP) has set the goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 45 percent by 2030. A key component of the plan is to increase population density, which the city believes will help lower GHG emissions by reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and encouraging more sustainable forms of travel like walking, biking, and public transit.
But is increasing density the right approach? Students in a capstone course at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs sought to find out. As part of a 2023–2024 RCP collaboration, they explored the relationship between population density and transportation mode share and found that the answer is not a simple “yes” or “no.”
According to a report summarizing their findings, increasing population density does help reduce VMT, but its impact is relatively modest. The study suggests that a 4 percent increase in average population density—the CAP’s target—won’t be enough to meet the city’s goal of reducing VMT by 7 percent. In fact, the team estimated that Edina would instead need to increase its population density by 18.3 percent to achieve its VMT goal.
The students also found that while density matters when it comes to shaping transportation patterns, it’s not all that matters. Access to destinations, the design of urban spaces, and the availability of alternative transportation all contribute to reducing car use and making higher densities work. Simply increasing the number of people living in any given area is not enough, they say—those people need to have viable alternatives to driving.
However, the relationship between density and transit ridership is complex. Higher population density can support better transit services because it provides a larger base of potential riders. But the report points out that increasing density alone is not likely to significantly increase transit use unless it is accompanied by improvements in transit service quality, frequency, and accessibility.
As part of their study, the students developed several zoning scenarios to test different approaches to increasing density. The one with the most impact focused on increasing density around transit corridors, the Regional Bicycle Transportation Network, and major health care facilities. This scenario resulted in the greatest reductions in VMT and GHG emissions while also achieving the highest increases in transit ridership.
Edina is already planning to introduce the METRO E Line, a bus rapid transit service that will add public transit options along key corridors in the city. The students’ report highlights that transit investments such as this—combined with targeted density increases around transit corridors—will likely be much more effective in boosting ridership than a blanket citywide increase in density.
What else can Edina do to make these density increases both feasible and effective? The report outlines several policy recommendations, including:
- Zoning changes—reclassifying certain areas to allow mixed-use development and reducing minimum lot sizes to allow for more compact development.
- Built form standards—replacing restrictive building coverage limits with more flexible design standards and setting minimum as well as maximum density standards.
- Transportation policies—eliminating parking requirements, improving pedestrian and biking infrastructure, and adopting Transportation Demand Management policies to encourage sustainable transportation choices.
Combined with targeted density increases, the students suggest that these policy changes could help Edina achieve the transportation and land-use goals outlined in its CAP—moving the city closer to its goal of reducing GHG emissions and creating a more sustainable, resilient community.
—Maggie Biever, CTS editor
