At the TRG Study's April 25 workshop, Professor John Adams gave a presentation titled "Low-density Development and Population Change: 20 Regional Centers in Minnesota, 1970-1998." As the title suggests, Adams and a team from the University's Geography Department are examining population changes since 1970, and highway traffic changes during the 1990s, for 20 regional centers in greater Minnesota and in the towns and townships within commuting range of those centers. The researchers want to determine whether the types of population changes and low-density development recently observed within the Twin Cities metro region are occurring elsewhere in the state. "We're looking at the big picture and how things are unfolding over time," Adams said.

John Adams

The regional centers, which include the cities of Bemidji, Duluth, Moorhead, Worthington, Albert Lea, and others, are located throughout the state. "Some of the regional centers are growing, some are declining, but all of them seem to be sprawling to some extent," Adams said.

An example of the type of change going on relates to agriculture. Although it's still a dominant activity, the vast majority of the population today does not work directly with agriculture. The agricultural centers that remain are often nodes of activity in low-density settlements, occupied by commuters who travel across the area to work. So in many ways, the lifestyles of people living in rural areas are similar to those in the metropolitan suburbs, Adams said. "That deserves some attention in terms of transportation use and long-range planning."

So far, the researchers have noted substantial differences in population between the different decades.

However, from decade to decade, patterns change--and there's no uniformity in patterns. "An interesting pattern is emerging across the state. [We're] just not sure yet what it is," Adams said. During the next phase of the research, the researchers will try to determine variations and common themes.

One finding, for example, shows that of the 25 cities in the study, only 9 of them gained population every decade. In order to explain this and other findings, the researchers will create visually comparable maps for each study area for each decade, then go out into the field to ask people who are knowledgeable about the specific areas, such as city planners, what they think is going on. By interviewing others and analyzing the patterns, the hope, Adams said, is that "a story will start to unfold."

However, creating maps that are consistent in scale across the different regional centers has proven challenging so far, Adams said. One regional commute-shed spans over 100 miles, while others are less than half that large.

The researchers are also experimenting with how to best illustrate the other component of the study--changes in traffic patterns. For this, they are using traffic-count data on major highways to discover changes in traffic volumes.

Ultimately, this research could influence significant investment decisions regarding where to build or improve highways. In the past, for example, building highway bypasses around cities often diverted traffic, and subsequent economic activity, from a city's center.

Adams surmises that the changes in population and in traffic patterns are just symptoms of larger underlying issues.