Research Reports

Developing and Validating a Model of Left-Turn Crashes to Support Safer Design and Operations

Principal Investigator:

Gary A Davis, Jingru Gao, Abhisek Mudgal

September 2018

Report no. CTS 18-18

Projects: Driver Behavior in Left-Turn and Other Two-Vehicle Crashes

Topics: Driver Performance and Behavior, Safety, Traffic operations

This report documents work done to advance the state of art in crash simulation. This includes: (1) A field study to collect data on drivers? left-turn gap acceptance and turning times, and development of statistical models that can be incorporated into a crash simulation model; (2) The use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo computational tools to quantify uncertainty in planar impact reconstruction of two-vehicle crashes; (3) A method for combing the results from planar impact reconstruction with event data recorder pre-crash data to estimate descriptive features of actual left-turn crashes. This is applied to several left-turn crashes from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration?s NASS/CDS database; (4) A left-turn crash simulation model incorporating the above results. Initial model checking is performed using estimates from the reconstructed NASS/CDS cases as well as results from a previous study on left-turn crash risk. Also described is a method for simulating crash modification effects without having to first simulate crashes as rare outcomes in very large numbers of gap acceptances.

Download or Order

Download PDF (3 MB)
For print version, view order form or contact CTS Library