Research Reports

Real-Time Traffic Prediction for Advanced Traffic Management Systems: Phase III

Principal Investigator:

Gary A Davis, Yorgos J Stephanedes, Chang-Jen Lan

May 2006

Report no. CTS 06-06

Projects: Real-Time Traffic Prediction and Control, Phase 3

Topics: Traffic Modeling and Data, Traffic Operations

Building on the research performed in Phases I and II of this study, the authors develop in Phase III an algorithm for estimating vehicle turning proportions at signalized intersections using partial detector information. This report demonstrates the efficiency of a maximum likelihood estimator approach to estimate turning proportions over a prediction error minimization principle. This phase enhances the traffic flow models to provide more detail on short-term instability and left-turning behavior at intersections. Finally, the authors develop two types of estimation algorithms using Nonlinear Least Squares and Quasi Maximum Likelihood to estimate the turning proportion parameters. These algorithms are useful tools to generate real-time applications in traffic control.

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