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October 2006
Hybrids: hype or hope?
Alfred Marcus
Record oil prices over the past few years have prompted a renewed interest in alternatives for cheaper energy. According to University applied economics professor Alfred Marcus, hybrid vehicles offer an opportunity to greatly reduce oil consumption, but the technology alone will not provide a suitable solution.
“Technological innovations are critical for solving our energy problems,” Marcus explained, “but they are just a means to an end. What we’re really trying to do is solve energy problems. We have to use in this society less carbon-based energy for a variety of very important reasons.”
Marcus, describing his hybrids research at a September meeting of the CTS Transportation and the Economy Research Council, identified the main reasons for addressing our growing energy problems. These include concerns for the environment, the economy, and national security. His presentation, titled “Hybrids: Hype or Hope?” was part of the CTS Research Seminar Series for students, faculty, and practitioners (www.cts.umn.edu/education/seminars) about transportation research at the University of Minnesota.
In Marcus’s view, national energy policy and consumer behavior figure more into the solution than any specific technology. In particular, gains made as the result of technological innovation have been foiled by increased consumption. The real challenge, he said, is to lower consumption without lowering the utility derived from transportation.
“Hybrids give us the illusion that we have attacked and achieved something with regard to this issue with less reliance on carbon-based energy,” he said.
Applying the “snapback” theory of consumer psychology, though, Marcus likened hybrid vehicles to low-calorie foods, to which dieters often respond by eating more because the calories don’t add up so fast. Similarly, the improved energy efficiency and lower operating costs derived from hybrid technology have prompted consumers to drive more miles and drive more large vehicles, thus diluting the benefits of these improvements. The same snapback dynamic appears to be at issue, too, when drivers exploit new technologies by taking more risks like choosing not to wear safety belts or speeding on rural roads, Marcus added.
Marcus described the two basic types of hybrids. One is a “mild” hybrid for which the primary engine is gasoline and an electric motor is used for hills, acceleration, and high-demand situations. A “full hybrid,” technology that is owned exclusively by Toyota, uses an electric engine for low speeds and gas for highway driving and acceleration. The greater efficiency of hybrids is due to three major features: regenerative braking, which captures, stores, and converts energy from deceleration that is wasted in conventional vehicles; automatic start and shutoff, which prevents idling waste; and the use of lighter materials.
Still, Marcus pointed out that hybrids, while 45 percent efficient compared with conventional vehicles at 25 percent, account for a lot of wasted energy. In addition, whether they are really worth the investment yet depends on the specific situation of each buyer. Marcus illustrated through a variety of feature and price comparisons that payback is modest when comparing models in different classes. For instance, if gas costs $5 per gallon, switching from a Toyota Corolla to a Prius would take nine years to recover the extra initial cost. However, switching from a Camry to a Prius would yield almost immediate savings.
“I personally really like the technology and I don’t currently drive one,” Marcus said. “But when I purchase my next car, I would buy the hybrid.”
But the most important factor for reducing consumption of carbon-based energy, Marcus stressed, is changing the mindset of consumers to favor smaller vehicles. To accomplish that, he said, supportive public policies are necessary. While higher gas taxes and changes to the Clean Air Act mandating higher fuel efficiency standards may be untenable, Marcus proposed what he felt are more viable options, including a new government agency, grants and subsidies, and investments.