HighLight Heading
June 2005
Commute times jump during '90s
Gary Barnes
According to the 2000 U.S. Census, Minnesotans saw their commute times increase by 3.5 minutes from 1990 to 2000, the same increase seen in the 50-year period from 1940 to 1990. Many explanations for this sudden jump have been offered: relatively cheap gas prices, population growth, congestion, and sprawl.
Transportation economist Gary Barnes, however, said that every theory in this case has a disproving counter-theory. For example, some counties experienced large increases, while neighboring counties with similar conditions often saw very minimal increases.
"The whole state shifted up by about three minutes during that decade," he said, noting that commute times increased in each of Minnesota's 87 counties. The largest increases weren't in urbanized counties or the "collar" counties that surround metro areas, but in non-urban counties.
Barnes, with the Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, examined variables that may affect commute times, such as changes in local land use, the locations of jobs respective to workers, and population growth. He compared economic differences among the counties, but didn't find any recent shifts that would explain statewide increases. Barnes also compared the ten counties with the smallest increases to the ten counties with the largest increases, and found that housing prices and wages increased at the same rate, but that the counties with the fastest population and job growth saw smaller increases in commute time.
In counties with fewer people working from home, there were large increases in commute duration, but this one factor alone does not explain the statewide trend.
Barnes concluded that the reasons for a statewide increase in commute times were still unknown, especially in the face of rising gas prices. "What happened during the 1990s that had not happened in any previous decade?" Barnes asked, unable to draw any solid conclusions from Census data. He speculated that improvements in car reliability and comfort, the ubiquity of cell phones (making commuters feel safer and more productive on long commutes), and the ability to search for distant jobs and housing via the Internet may explain the change.